As you all know by now, we at SLelections2010.com were the team behind the most accurate election poll predictions for the Presidential elections 2010 concluded on 26th January. You can see the original pre-election poll results here (http://slelections2010.com/presidential-elections-2010/await-latest-preelection-poll-results).
In this new article we compare the results that we predicted for each district and how the actual results have deviated from the pre-poll results.
First of all, we would like to highlight on that fact that we had predicted a total valid poll percentage of 76.19% for the whole island. However, the actual nationwide valid vote percentage was 73.73%. This was mainly due to extremely low turnout in Jaffna and Vanni districts. However, the turnout in Batticaloa and Trincomalee districts were considerably higher than our predictions. From a political sense, this could be interpreted as the eastern regions getting freed from LTTE clutches much earlier than the districts in Northern Province and the people living in the east may be feeling the freedom of choice compared to that of people living in the north.
Below is the district level predictions Vs actual of voter turnout.
| District | SLelections2010.com predicted valid votes |
Actual valid votes | SLelections2010.com predicted valid vote percentage |
Actual valid vote percentage |
| Colombo | 1,156,460 | 1,161,382 | 76.75% | 76.31% |
| Gampaha | 1,178,140 | 1,165,648 | 80.71% | 79.06% |
| Kalutara | 655,594 | 654,249 | 81.43% | 80.45% |
| Batticaloa | 159,423 | 211,891 | 48.51% | 63.51% |
| Ampara | 302,582 | 306,562 | 72.70% | 72.85% |
| Trincomalee | 151,938 | 162,072 | 63.84% | 67.21% |
| Anuradhapura | 452,925 | 450,038 | 78.98% | 77.69% |
| Polonnaruwa | 223,220 | 223,175 | 80.43% | 79.61% |
| Jaffna | 279,766 | 178,369 | 39.37% | 24.73% |
| Vanni | 138,271 | 105,252 | 52.58% | 39.42% |
| Kandy | 771,547 | 750,786 | 79.65% | 76.73% |
| Matale | 267,878 | 264,419 | 79.04% | 77.16% |
| Nuwara Eliya | 364,105 | 346,382 | 80.78% | 75.77% |
| Badulla | 461,192 | 446,294 | 81.29% | 77.64% |
| Monaragala | 240,585 | 229,584 | 81.16% | 76.36% |
| Kegalle | 493,471 | 479,964 | 81.19% | 78.18% |
| Ratnapura | 610,790 | 592,426 | 83.98% | 80.64% |
| Kurunegala | 943,617 | 923,893 | 80.51% | 78.05% |
| Puttalam | 350,610 | 344,113 | 71.68% | 69.44% |
| Galle | 618,114 | 607,621 | 81.94% | 79.76% |
| Matara | 464,050 | 451,929 | 80.96% | 78.07% |
| Hambantota | 338,430 | 337,564 | 81.41% | 80.15% |
| Total | 10,622,707 | 10,393,613 | 76.19% | 73.73% |
Below table compares our prediction for each district Vs actual votes received by two main candidates. It also displays the prediction deviation from the actual results so that the readers could get a clear view on the accuracy and relevancy of SLelections2010.com pre-election poll results.
| Predicted results | Final result 2010 | Difference | ||||||
| District | Sarath Fonseka |
Mahinda Rajapaksa |
Sarath Fonseka | Mahinda Rajapaksa |
Sarath Fonseka | Mahinda Rajapaksa |
prediction variance % from actual results of SF |
prediction variance % from actual results of MR |
| Colombo | 557,974 | 598,486 | 533,022 | 614,740 | -24,952 | 16,254 | -4.68% | 2.64% |
| Gampaha | 512,387 | 665,753 | 434,506 | 718,716 | -77,881 | 52,963 | -17.92% | 7.37% |
| Kalutara | 251,363 | 404,231 | 231,807 | 412,562 | -19,556 | 8,331 | -8.44% | 2.02% |
| Batticaloa | 72,543 | 86,880 | 146,057 | 55,663 | 73,514 | -31,217 | 50.33% | -56.08% |
| Ampara | 151,410 | 151,172 | 153,105 | 146,912 | 1,695 | -4,260 | 1.11% | -2.90% |
| Trincomalee | 79,468 | 72,470 | 87,661 | 69,752 | 8,193 | -2,718 | 9.35% | -3.90% |
| Anuradhapura | 199,470 | 253,455 | 143,761 | 298,448 | -55,709 | 44,993 | -38.75% | 15.08% |
| Polonnaruwa | 101,664 | 121,556 | 75,026 | 144,889 | -26,638 | 23,333 | -35.51% | 16.10% |
| Jaffna | 208,092 | 71,674 | 113,877 | 44,154 | -94,215 | -27,520 | -82.73% | -62.33% |
| Vanni | 104,317 | 33,954 | 70,367 | 28,740 | -33,950 | -5,214 | -48.25% | -18.14% |
| Kandy | 356,043 | 415,504 | 329,492 | 406,636 | -26,551 | -8,868 | -8.06% | -2.18% |
| Matale | 103,455 | 164,423 | 100,513 | 157,953 | -2,942 | -6,470 | -2.93% | -4.10% |
| Nuwara Eliya | 153,781 | 210,324 | 180,604 | 151,604 | 26,823 | -58,720 | 14.85% | -38.73% |
| Badulla | 202,000 | 259,192 | 198,835 | 237,579 | -3,165 | -21,613 | -1.59% | -9.10% |
| Monaragala | 90,053 | 150,532 | 66,803 | 158,435 | -23,250 | 7,903 | -34.80% | 4.99% |
| Kegalle | 186,345 | 307,126 | 174,877 | 296,639 | -11,468 | -10,487 | -6.56% | -3.54% |
| Ratnapura | 245,662 | 365,128 | 203,566 | 377,734 | -42,096 | 12,606 | -20.68% | 3.34% |
| Kurunegala | 379,482 | 564,135 | 327,594 | 582,784 | -51,888 | 18,649 | -15.84% | 3.20% |
| Puttalam | 152,339 | 198,271 | 136,233 | 201,981 | -16,106 | 3,710 | -11.82% | 1.84% |
| Galle | 233,866 | 384,248 | 211,633 | 386,971 | -22,233 | 2,723 | -10.51% | 0.70% |
| Matara | 185,868 | 278,182 | 148,510 | 296,155 | -37,358 | 17,973 | -25.16% | 6.07% |
| Hambantota | 123,638 | 214,792 | 105,336 | 226,887 | -18,302 | 12,095 | -17.38% | 5.33% |
| 4,651,219 | 5,971,488 | 4,173,185 | 6,015,934 | -478,034 | 44,446 | -11.45% | 0.74% | |
| 43.79% | 56.21% | 89.72% | 100.74% | |||||
-SL Elections 2010 Team
